Plate Nº 56 · recorded October 10, 2026
Biology & EvolutionReported finding
Ancient DNA Traces 400 Years of Plague After the Black Death
Researchers reconstructed 26 ancient plague genomes from 11 sites across Europe, showing Y. pestis returned for 400+ years after the Black Death and spread via troop routes during major wars.
By James Calloway3 min read691 words
In brief
- 26 genomes of Yersinia pestis were reconstructed from human remains at 11 archaeological sites in Estonia, Russia, England, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.
- Plague persisted across Europe from the 14th to 18th centuries, more than 400 years after the Black Death of 1347–1353.
- Around 1450–1500, plague lineages underwent a major expansion and split into three branches, possibly seeding new wild rodent reservoirs.
- Outbreaks were genetically linked to the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) and the Great Northern War (c. 1700–1721).
- During the 1710 siege of Tallinn, plague killed Swedish and Russian soldiers along with civilians.
Researchers have reconstructed 26 ancient genomes of Yersinia pestis from human remains at 11 archaeological sites in Estonia, Russia, England, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, showing that plague returned to Europe for more than 400 years after the Black Death. The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, covers samples from the 14th through 18th centuries.
Why did plague keep returning?
The Black Death killed millions across Europe between 1347 and 1353. Yet the disease did not vanish afterward. It triggered what historians call the Second Plague Pandemic, a long sequence of outbreaks that reshaped cities and economies for generations. The new genetic evidence now clarifies how.
Plague did not simply persist in one place and trickle outward. Instead, the bacterium resurfaced in different regions over hundreds of years. Estonia offers a clear case. Researchers found evidence of repeated introductions starting in the late 14th century, in both urban and rural communities.
"We found evidence for repeated introductions of plague into Estonia starting already in the late 14th century and identified several previously unknown genetic lineages, both in urban and rural settings," said senior author Prof. Kristiina Tambets.
What happened around 1450–1500?
The most striking genetic pattern appeared between roughly 1450 and 1500. During that period, plague lineages underwent a major expansion and split into three branches. The researchers suspect those branches seeded new reservoirs of Y. pestis in wild rodent populations across Europe.
Climate may have played a role. The team points to the Great Renaissance Drought as a possible driver. Studies of modern plague show that climate shifts can strongly affect outbreaks among wild rodents, which act as the bacterium's natural hosts.
How can scientists date ancient plague?
Radiocarbon dating, the standard tool for aging archaeological remains, often returns windows spanning more than a century. For a fast-mutating bacterium, that range is too wide to link a genome to a specific outbreak. The team tackled this problem directly.
"With COVID-19, scientists could reconstruct the spread of individual strains extremely well because the genomes came with precise timestamps. For historical pandemics, those timestamps are often missing or may cover more than 100 years, which limits our ability to interpret the genetic data," said Dr. Marcel Keller, the study's main author.
The researchers placed each plague genome on the bacterium's evolutionary tree. They used that position to narrow the likely date of each sample. Applying this method to 64 previously published plague genomes and 11 newly sequenced ones produced the first systematic attempt to link nearly all available 14th- to 18th-century plague genomes with outbreaks recorded by chroniclers.
"We were able to improve dating intervals for many samples, which allowed us to connect them to specific plague waves and outbreaks that were recorded in the respective towns or regions by chroniclers," said historian and corresponding author Prof. Philip Slavin.
How did war and trade move plague?
The genetic record reveals how strongly human activity drove the pathogen's spread. The team found strong connections between outbreaks and two major European wars: the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) and the Great Northern War (c. 1700–1721).
"We see how Yersinia pestis splits into new branches during periods of conflict and spreads along the routes traveled by troops and displaced populations," said senior author Dr. Christiana L. Scheib.
The study adds genetic confirmation to outbreaks connected with the Great Northern War. During the 1710 siege of Tallinn, plague killed Swedish and Russian soldiers and civilians trapped in the city.
Why does this history still matter?
Plague no longer threatens Europe on a large scale. But Y. pestis has not vanished globally. The bacterium persists in rodent reservoirs in several regions today.
Researchers argue that understanding how plague became established after the Black Death, persisted for centuries, and faded from Europe could sharpen modern disease surveillance. Ancient genomes, paired with written records, reveal how pathogens emerge, spread, and settle into animal hosts. That knowledge could improve monitoring of places where plague still circulates.
The project brought together archaeologists, geneticists, and historians from institutions including the University of Cambridge and partners in the Netherlands and Switzerland.
via dx.doi.org (Original)
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Staff writer covering regulation, policy and their impact on general science news at SciBeat.
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