Better Hurricane Maps Help People See Risk but Not Feel It

Why do people still misread the cone?

The study also confirmed a stubborn misconception about the cone of uncertainty. Many people read the cone's width as a measure of a storm's physical size, when it actually represents the uncertainty in the storm's projected track — where the center of the storm might go.

"For years, research has shown that people often mistake a wider cone for a bigger storm," Ray said. "Our findings suggest that even with an updated graphic, that misconception can be hard to shake."

That gap matters because hurricane hazards aren't confined to the coastline. Flooding, tornadoes, and destructive winds can strike communities well inland, which is precisely why the NHC expanded its graphic in the first place.

Is the forecast itself the problem?

No, according to the researchers. They consider the NHC's weather predictions highly accurate. The difficulty lies in communicating complex meteorological information so that non-experts can use it to make safety decisions.

"Our question wasn't whether the science is good," said co-author Patrick Merle, professor and director of the School of Communication. "The science is excellent. The question is how we communicate that science so people who aren't meteorologists understand the risk they're facing."

Merle added: "If people find information credible but still don't understand it well enough to take protective action, then communication has fallen short. The goal is to empower people with information they can use to stay safe."

How should you use a hurricane forecast map?

The findings come with practical advice. A single forecast image, no matter how well designed, can't communicate every hazard a community might face. The researchers recommend pairing the cone with:

• local weather forecasts,
• detailed information about specific expected impacts, and
• clear guidance on protective steps residents should consider.

"Our findings are a reminder that one graphic can only tell you part of the story," Ray said. "Don't rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take."

Bradford Johnson, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography, contributed as a co-author. The study was funded through an internal FSU SEED grant, and the NHC supplied the experimental forecast graphics the team evaluated.

The bottom line: forecast maps are getting clearer, but clarity alone doesn't save lives. Understanding what a graphic means — and acting on it — remains the harder problem.