Plate Nº 51 · recorded September 30, 2026
Earth & ClimateReported finding
Hurricane Nolo Strengthens South of Hawaii, Threatening the Big Island
Hurricane Nolo, now a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds, could intensify further and dump up to 35 inches of rain on Hawaii's Big Island, forecasters warn.
By Priya Raman3 min read583 words
In brief
- As of 12 UTC Friday, September 25, 2026, Hurricane Nolo had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph), making it a Category 1 storm.
- The National Hurricane Center expects Nolo to potentially strengthen into a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) this weekend.
- The eastern and southern Big Island could see 15–30 inches of rain, with peaks of 35 inches, triggering catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides.
Hurricane Nolo is strengthening south of Hawaii, and forecasters are warning that the storm could bring potentially catastrophic flooding to the Big Island through the weekend.
As of 12 UTC on Friday, September 25, 2026, Nolo had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph), making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, the five-tier system used to rank hurricane intensity. The storm's center was located about 220 miles (355 kilometers) south of South Point, Hawaii, and roughly 410 miles (655 kilometers) south-southeast of Honolulu. Nolo is drifting north-northeast at about 5 mph (8 km/h) — a slow pace that matters, because slower storms linger longer and can drop more rain over the same ground.
A fast start to the week's storm
Nolo has developed quickly. It strengthened into a tropical storm on September 23, then rapidly intensified early on September 24, reaching hurricane status by that evening. Rapid intensification — a jump in wind speed of at least 35 mph within 24 hours — leaves communities with less time to prepare.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Nolo to strengthen further, potentially becoming a major hurricane, defined as Category 3 or stronger, sometime this weekend.
The storm's center will stay south — but rain won't
Here is the crucial point for residents: Nolo's center is forecast to remain well south of the main Hawaiian islands. The storm is still not expected to make landfall. Yet the NHC warns that Nolo could trigger "catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding" through the weekend.
Rain, not wind, is Nolo's biggest threat. Hawaii's steep volcanic terrain makes the islands especially vulnerable: when heavy rain falls on sharp slopes, water rushes downhill fast, raising the risk of flash floods and mudslides.
The numbers are stark. The NHC projects that the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island will receive 15–30 inches (38–76 centimeters) of rainfall, with localized peaks of up to 35 inches. In the agency's words, that rainfall:
…could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
The danger extends beyond the eastern and southern coasts. The western parts of the Big Island could receive up to 10 inches of rain, and Maui could see up to 15 inches. Across the rest of the Hawaiian Islands, forecasters expect rainfall totals of 1–3 inches, with maximum amounts of 6 inches — enough to cause isolated flooding in some spots.
Surge, surf, and rip currents
Alongside the rain, Nolo could push a storm surge of 1–3 feet (0.3–0.9 meters) above ground level in parts of Hawaii County. A storm surge is the abnormal rise of seawater pushed ashore by a storm's winds. Dangerous surf and rip currents — strong, narrow channels of fast-moving water that can pull swimmers away from shore — are also expected on exposed coastlines.
What comes next
Forecasts carry uncertainty, and storm tracks and intensity projections can shift as new data arrive. Residents and visitors in Hawaii should monitor official updates from the National Hurricane Center as the weekend approaches, and follow any instructions from local emergency officials, particularly in flood-prone and low-lying areas.
For the latest advisories, the NHC posts regular updates on its website.
Bottom line: Hurricane Nolo is strengthening south of Hawaii and could bring potentially catastrophic flooding to the Big Island through the weekend, with rainfall of up to 35 inches possible in some areas.
via nhc.noaa.gov (Original)
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Senior reporter covering industry trends and analytics at SciBeat.
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