Plate Nº 44 · recorded November 12, 2026
Earth & ClimateReported finding
El Niño Will Push Global Temperatures Past 1.5 Degrees C
An El Niño possibly the strongest in 1,000 years is set to push 2026 and 2027 past 1.5 degrees C, and scientists aren't sure temperatures will drop back below the Paris threshold.
By Nathan Brooks4 min read751 words
In brief
- 2026 and 2027 are projected at 1.52 and up to 1.74 degrees C above preindustrial temperatures
- Pacific sea surface temperatures sit about 3.4 degrees C above normal, possibly reaching 4 degrees C at peak
- This El Niño may be the strongest in the past 1,000 years, exceeding coral and tree-ring records back to 1100
- Land areas have already seen 90–94 percent of the warming expected in a 1.5-degree world, per Nature Climate Change
- UN agencies estimate warming will peak at 2.6 degrees C before reversing
Both 2026 and 2027 will almost certainly land more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial average temperatures, crossing the threshold nearly 200 countries pledged to avoid under the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The driver is an El Niño that scientists say may be the strongest in living memory — perhaps the strongest in the past 1,000 years. The question now is whether global temperatures ever come back down below that line.
"Eventually there's going to be a year where we don't dip below 1.5C [on average], and based on what I'm seeing here, it might be this year," says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources.
How does El Niño heat up the planet?
El Niño is a shift in Pacific wind and water patterns. Normally, westerly winds pile warm water up in the western tropical Pacific. Every few years those winds slacken or even reverse, sending the warm water sloshing eastward. The shift raises coastal sea levels, disrupts weather patterns worldwide, and releases enormous amounts of stored ocean heat into the atmosphere.
This event is unusual for its speed. By September, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific region at El Niño's epicenter had already passed a daily record set in November 2015 — and the phenomenon usually peaks in November or December. "This El Niño is growing so much faster than any other event," says Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Stripe and Berkeley Earth. He calls the situation "literally and figuratively out of uncharted waters."
The numbers back him up. Ocean temperatures in El Niño's Pacific core currently sit around 3.4 degrees C above normal, and models project they could hit four degrees C above normal at the event's peak. That would smash the heat record for any El Niño since direct measurements began — set in 1877, an event linked to millions of deaths from droughts and failed harvests. It would also exceed estimates from coral and tree rings going back to the year 1100. Hausfather notes this event would likely set a record even without the baseline ocean warming from climate change.
How hot will the years get?
Projections put the global average at 1.52 degrees C above preindustrial temperatures for 2026 and perhaps 1.74 degrees C for 2027. El Niño's global heat effects typically arrive a year after the event begins, because the heat takes time to spread. That lag means 2026 could surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record. Whether or not it does, 2027 is virtually certain to take the crown.
These will be the second and third years above 1.5 degrees C, after 2024 became the first.
Could this warmth become permanent?
Normally, El Niño's temperature spike is temporary. Ocean surface temperatures return to their usual arrangement, and the released heat slowly escapes to space. But Swain worries this year's heat pulse could feed the feedback loops that worsen warming. Possible cascades include:
- Sea ice melt that lets polar oceans absorb more heat
- Permafrost thaw that releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas
- El Niño-driven drought and wildfires that pump more planet-warming emissions into the air, says Kim Wood, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Arizona
"It's possible that now at least a small portion of the warming from El Niños is not always so temporary anymore," Swain says. He emphasizes considerable uncertainty, though.
There's also a decent chance the Pacific swings into La Niña, El Niño's cold-water counterpart, which depresses global temperatures. A strong La Niña could pull global temperatures down to about 1.45 degrees C above preindustrial levels. But the baseline keeps climbing: the La Niña year of 2022 was hotter than the blockbuster El Niño year of 1998. Hausfather says he "would not be surprised at all if we go back below" 1.5 degrees C after this event.
What does the 1.5-degree goal mean now?
A study published Monday in Nature Climate Change estimates land areas worldwide have already experienced 90 to 94 percent of the warming expected in a fully 1.5-degree-C world. United Nations agencies have acknowledged the Paris goal will be breached eventually, estimating warming will peak at 2.6 degrees C before the trend can be reversed.
When we cross 1.5 degrees C for good, and how long we stay there, depends heavily on decisions made now and over the next few years.
via scientificamerican.com (Source)
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