Climate Change Tripled Iberia's Record 2025 Fire Burned Area

The first is straightforward drying: prolonged drought before periods of extreme fire weather has fueled exceptional fires in carbon-rich regions such as Canada, Amazonia, the Pantanal-Chiquitano region and the Congo Basin.

The second is more counterintuitive. In fuel-limited or fire-adapted regions, including northwest Iberia and Los Angeles, unusually wet conditions first boosted vegetation growth. Rapid drying, extreme heat and drought then converted that lush growth into abundant fuel.

Dr. Francesca Di Giuseppe, the lead author from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said: "Enhanced vegetation growth after unusually wet conditions in regions like Iberia, followed by extreme heat and drought, exacerbates the risk in a process known as hydroclimatic rebound, setting the stage for severe fires."

Chile showed a more mixed picture, with both vegetation conditions and drying playing a role, although prolonged drying was the dominant mechanism behind the January–February 2026 fires there.

What happened in each region?

The report's case studies detail the human and ecological cost of the 2025–26 season.

• Canada endured a third consecutive extreme wildfire season in July–August 2025. Fire emissions reached nearly triple the 2002–2024 average. Around 70,000 people were evacuated, direct costs reached approximately $360 million, and air quality was severely degraded. Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0, a pathway assuming sustained high fossil-fuel use), fires similar to those of 2025 are projected to burn around 6% more area by the end of the century.
• Northwest Iberia suffered several of its largest fires on record during an August 2025 episode that caused 14 fatalities and more than 42,000 evacuations. Under the same high-emissions scenario, similar fires are projected to burn around 78% more area by the end of the century — with some projections indicating increases of up to sevenfold.
• Chile and northern Patagonia saw fires that caused 23 fatalities and displaced around 52,000 people. The flames reached Los Alerces National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and its ancient alerce forests, which include trees thousands of years old. Similar fires are projected to burn around 34% more area by the century's end under high emissions.

Why did a record-low global fire season hide extremes?

The 2025–2026 global fire season actually recorded the lowest global burned area and fire emissions since 2002, driven by unusually low burning in African savannas. That global metric, the authors stress, conceals exceptionally severe regional extremes that damaged air quality, caused fatalities and mass evacuations, generated significant socioeconomic costs, and harmed carbon-rich ecosystems and carbon projects.

Dr. Matthew Jones, the report's lead author from UEA, said: "2025–26 reminds us that not all fires are equal. We once again saw a low-ranking year for area burned globally, but a catalog of high-impact events which caused devastating regional to local impacts on society, and immense CO₂ emissions that further accelerate the pace of climate change."

Dr. Douglas Kelley of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) pointed to where the signal is strongest: "The strongest climate change signal appears in the most extreme fire events rather than in average fire activity. That means future wildfire seasons may not simply become uniformly worse, but that the most damaging years are likely to become more severe."

Within Europe specifically, the report projects that fires similar to those of 2025 could burn around one-third more area within the next 20 years.

The report brings together scientists from the Met Office, ECMWF, UEA and UKCEH alongside leading experts from more than 20 countries. Its central message is not fatalistic: reducing anthropogenic emissions, the authors write, can make a significant difference to how large such events become in the future.

The worse fires are still avoidable.