US Wildfire Building Losses Could Nearly Triple by 2060

• The West still accounts for the largest share of projected damage, reflecting how much development is already exposed there.
• The central United States sees some of the fastest projected increases, driven by fires in grasslands and prairies.
• Eastern communities generally show smaller increases, but fires can still be highly destructive where they encounter vulnerable buildings.

The plains and prairies story deserves attention. Grass fires move differently than forest fires, and the central states haven't historically anchored the national picture of wildfire loss.

In short: the wildfire problem is no longer just a Western problem.

Who is most exposed to the damage?

The study also looked at who might struggle most to cope. In the West, roughly 30% of the census areas projected to see the greatest increases in risk already face poverty and high housing costs relative to income.

That overlap compounds the danger. Preparing for fire, repairing damage, or finding a new place to live all take resources. Where homes are already expensive to maintain, building upgrades can be harder to afford — even when residents understand the danger they face.

The plain version: the places facing rising fire risk often have the least money to do something about it.

What could change the outcome?

The 449,100-building estimate comes with clear caveats. It depends on assumptions about future development, climate, and how communities prepare. Changes in any of those conditions could shift both the number of buildings in danger and the places where losses concentrate.

The researchers note the projections can help planners compare options, including:

• Stronger building standards
• Changes to where new homes go
• Work to reduce fuels near existing communities

Those choices can matter alongside the pace of climate action itself. The study shows why reducing damage depends on two things at once: the way fires spread, and the way people build, prepare, and recover.

The bottom line for planners: development decisions made today shape who gets hit tomorrow.

What are the study's limits?

This is a projection under one specific scenario, not a forecast carved in stone. The scenario assumes moderate climate action and no new fire protections — a deliberately informative baseline rather than a prediction of what will actually happen.

The study gives communities a view of where losses could grow under those conditions. It doesn't claim to know how policy, building practices, or development patterns will shift in the coming decades.

Still, the direction of travel is clear. Fire risk to buildings is on track to climb, the fastest growth may surprise the central states, and the communities least able to pay are often the ones most in the path.