One vast stronghold amid growing fragmentation

The analysis reveals a single overwhelmingly important stronghold: a vast connected landscape spanning parts of the Amazon, Llanos, Pantanal and Chaco regions. It covers roughly 6.5 million square kilometers (2.5 million square miles) across 11 countries and ranked as the most important core habitat for jaguar connectivity. It also accounted for the vast majority of predicted movement density in the model.

Outside this central block, the picture darkens. The researchers found major connectivity gaps in parts of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and the Atlantic Forest. Many jaguar populations there appear increasingly isolated, which raises concerns about long-term gene flow — the exchange of genes between populations — and about whether those populations can persist.

"Jaguars are in a stronger position than many other large carnivores because they still retain an extensive connected stronghold in South America," said Cushman. "However, our results show that connectivity is far from secure across the species' entire range. Several regions now depend on relatively narrow connections that could be lost if habitat conversion continues."

Protected lands offer additional opportunities

Beyond modeling connectivity between existing jaguar strongholds, the team analyzed connections among 905 protected areas and Indigenous lands. This second approach identified 507 potential corridors and highlighted locations where conservation action could strengthen future connectivity.

The two approaches complemented each other. Connectivity modeled from current jaguar populations offered the most realistic picture of present-day conditions, while the protected-area analysis revealed opportunities to restore or maintain connections in the future.

Modeled corridors, not confirmed routes

The findings arrive as conservation organizations and governments increasingly emphasize connectivity as a key strategy for biodiversity conservation. Maintaining links between populations helps sustain gene flow, facilitates dispersal — the movement of animals away from their birthplace — and reduces the risk of local extinctions.

The authors urge caution in interpreting the results, however. The identified corridors represent modeled pathways, not confirmed movement routes, and field validation remains necessary.

"These results provide a framework for prioritizing conservation action across the jaguar's range," said Kaszta. "The maps identify where connectivity appears strongest, where it is most vulnerable, and where future conservation efforts could have the greatest impact."

The researchers hope the findings will help guide habitat protection, restoration efforts and transboundary conservation initiatives aimed at keeping jaguars connected as pressure from land-use change intensifies.

The paper: Guilherme Costa Alvarenga et al., "Jaguar Range-Wide Connectivity: Prioritising Core Areas and Corridors Between and Within Protected Areas and Indigenous Lands," Global Change Biology (2026). DOI: 10.1111/gcb.71093.