South Korea Could Catch Zero Squid by 2043 as Seas Warm

The study also identified a predator on the rise. Domestic catches of Japanese amberjack (Seriola quinqueradiata), which preys on squid and prefers warmer seas, have grown alongside warming waters and falling squid landings.

Strong La Niña conditions compound the problem, the researchers found, because they typically bring more marine heat wave activity in the following autumns and winters. "Our analysis suggests that changes in winds and ocean circulation help carry more warm water into the East Sea," Kim Kyung-hoi said. But he cautioned against oversimplification: "The message is not simply that 'La Niña causes squid to disappear.' Long-term warming provides the background pressure, and climate variability can intensify unfavorable conditions in particular years."

Is the squid going extinct?

No — it's moving. Experts believe the Pacific flying squid is shifting northward, past Siberia toward the Arctic Ocean. "Squid are highly mobile species, and their migration, feeding, growth, and reproduction are strongly influenced by water temperature," said Kim Tae-won, a professor of ocean sciences at Inha University who was not involved in the study. "Even relatively small changes in ocean temperature can alter their migration routes, spawning grounds, and habitat suitability."

The decline has swept across Asia in sequence, according to Jung Suk-geun, a professor of marine life science at Jeju National University: first Taiwan, then the Pacific side of Japan, then the Korea Strait, and finally South Korea's eastern coast. "This is obviously due to ocean warming caused by climate change and global warming," she said.

Elsewhere, squid are holding their own. The East China Sea has kept its spawning grounds, and North Sea fishers in Europe reportedly now catch more squid and octopus than in past years. "While some squid populations are declining, others may be expanding their ranges or increasing in abundance as ocean conditions change," Kim Tae-won said. He warned that further decline in Korean waters could disrupt ecological interactions and reduce biodiversity.

What does it mean for fishers and consumers?

The East Sea, also known as the Sea of Japan, is the most vulnerable of East Asia's marginal seas, in Jung's view. Cold-water species such as walleye pollock and sailfin sandfish have virtually disappeared from it. Squid fisheries around Ulleung Island "have completely gone bankrupt," she said, and eastern-coast fishers have abandoned their facilities, often carrying debt, despite government subsidies.

Imports haven't stopped the price pain. A medium-sized fresh squid from Korean coastal waters cost more than 40% more in 2026 than in 2022, according to the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation. The government, the Seoul Economic Daily reported, is seeking more deep-sea fishing permits in foreign waters, including around Brazil and Argentina.

Kim Kyung-hoi stressed the study's limits: catch records are valuable, "but they are not a direct count of all squid in the sea," and more research is needed to track the population properly. Kim Tae-won put the stakes plainly: "Squid is one of South Korea's most important and culturally significant fishery resources. I think this study highlights that climate change is a real threat not only to marine ecosystems but also to our dinner tables."