Plate Nº 31 · recorded November 13, 2026
Space & AstronomyReported finding
SpaceX's Starship Success Could Strand NASA's Astronaut Flights
SpaceX plans to wind down Falcon 9 as Starship ramps up, leaving NASA with just three contracted Dragon flights through 2028 — two years before the space station retires.
By James Calloway4 min read772 words
In brief
- NASA has three contracted SpaceX flights to the ISS, enough to last only through 2028; the station retires in 2030.
- Starship's latest test: liftoff in South Texas, one orbit, vertical landing 22.5 hours later at the same pad.
- SpaceX revenue through September: ~$2.1B from launches vs ~$12.8B from Starlink and ~$10.9B from its AI business.
- Quilty Space estimates a commercial shortfall of ~150 launches between now and 2030 if Falcon 9 retires.
- Boeing's crewed Starliner flight is not expected until 2028; its 2024 test turned 8 days into a 9-month stay.
NASA has just three more contracted astronaut flights to the International Space Station with SpaceX, and that runway ends in 2028 — two years before the station itself retires in 2030. The math is tight. And the company that solved NASA's astronaut launch problem may soon walk away from it.
SpaceX is planning the most ambitious test yet of its giant new rocket, Starship, lifting off from a pad in South Texas, circling the Earth and landing vertically back at the same pad 22 and a half hours later. Founder Elon Musk says he hopes Starship will one day carry astronauts to Mars. But experts warn that the rocket's rapid rise could strand one of SpaceX's oldest boosters: NASA itself.
Here's the mechanism. As SpaceX ramps up Starship, it has said it will stop flying the much smaller Falcon 9. Falcon 9 launches the Dragon capsule. Dragon is currently the only American spacecraft that can carry NASA astronauts to and from the space station.
Why does Dragon matter so much?
"Because Dragon has become such a successful and reliable vehicle, it became the de facto way for astronauts to get to orbit," said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, a firm that tracks the space industry.
The numbers tell the story. Through September of this year, SpaceX's latest financial report shows roughly $2.1 billion in revenue from space launches. Starlink, its subscription satellite internet service, pulled in around $12.8 billion. Its fast-growing AI business made around $10.9 billion. Launches are now a side dish.
That's a stark reversal from 2008. Back then, after multiple Falcon 9 failures, SpaceX was nearly broke. "We were running on fumes at that point, we had virtually no money," Musk told CBS' 60 Minutes in 2014. NASA came through with a big contract days before Christmas. "I couldn't even hold the phone, I just blurted out, 'I love you guys!'" Musk recalled.
What does Falcon's retirement change?
A lot, and not just for astronauts. A recent Quilty Space analysis finds the commercial market could fall short by roughly 150 launches between now and 2030. The Pentagon has reportedly been scrambling to find rides for national security satellites. In a statement to NPR, the U.S. Space Force said it has secured Falcon 9 launches through 2028 and is "confident" other suppliers will pick up the slack.
Confidence is one thing. Proven rockets are another.
Musk laid out the logic on X earlier this year: "Once Starship is flying reliably several times per week, it makes sense to shift super scarce SpaceX engineering and production resources to Starship to get launch rate to several times per day, which means winding down Falcon."
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell put it more colorfully at the All In summit in Los Angeles in September. "A Falcon 9 with a Dragon capsule on top is like a minivan. … The road trip to Mars is six months — so you don't want to be in the minivan." Her caveat-free dismissal skipped one detail: the minivan is perfect for the short trip to the station. It's the only American option.
Can Boeing fill the hole?
Maybe. Eventually. Shotwell implied a rival could take over: "Boeing has been paid, I think, probably more than we have been paid to develop their human capsule. So we're just going to let them have some business," she said. "They should fly their capsule."
Boeing's Starliner has been beset by problems. Its first attempt to carry astronauts in 2024 turned a planned eight-day ISS mission into a nine-month stay; the astronauts came home on a SpaceX vehicle in March of the following year. The next Starliner test is set for this winter, with a crewed flight sometime in 2028 — the same year Dragon's contract runs dry.
What's not being said
Nobody at SpaceX has named a retirement date for Falcon 9. The company did not respond to NPR's request for comment. Henry notes that building capsules is slow and expensive, and NASA is about the only customer willing to pay. "Today there is not a strong commercial market for human spaceflight," he said.
Tim Farrar, president of TMF Associates, a telecom analysis firm that tracks SpaceX, said the choices make business sense — NASA missions are "small potatoes" — but he wonders whether NASA deserves better. "They were responsible essentially for SpaceX not going bankrupt," he said. "One would hope that there's a bit of loyalty."
Loyalty, in this case, has a deadline. And right now it's 2028.
via feeds.npr.org (Source)
More from James Calloway
Show full bio
Staff writer covering regulation, policy and their impact on general science news at SciBeat.
364 articles