UK 2030 EV sales target may fall from 80% to 60% as demand lags

Because the forecast sits below the 2026 and 2027 mandates, manufacturers increasingly rely on discounting, credit trading and other flexibilities to avoid penalties. Credit trading is the exchange of regulatory credits between manufacturers.

Why are manufacturers pressing for a slower path?

Carmakers say they have already spent billions developing electric models and heavily subsidizing their sales. High purchase prices, charging concerns, and uncertainty over residual values, meaning what a used electric car may be worth later, continue to hold back private buyers.

The SMMT says manufacturers cannot indefinitely bridge the gap between consumer demand and the regulatory requirement. Chief executive Mike Hawes said: “Manufacturers remain committed to the move to zero-emission vehicles.” He also warned: “The regulation was designed when energy was cheaper,” with faster expected cost declines and stronger global demand forecasts.

Production costs were expected to fall faster when the rules were designed, and forecasts for global electric-vehicle demand were considerably stronger. The government launched its review in August to examine whether the annual targets and existing compliance flexibilities remain realistic.

How is Chinese competition complicating the mandate?

Chinese brands add another complication for European and British manufacturers. BYD, Chery, Geely and Changan have expanded aggressively in Britain, helped by lower production costs and a large domestic Chinese battery supply chain.

Reuters reported earlier in 2026 that Chinese manufacturers had taken around 15% of the UK market. That growth gives established carmakers a harder task: regulators require them to push more electric vehicles into a market where demand remains below target.

The European Commission concluded that Chinese battery-electric vehicle producers benefit from unfair state subsidies. It imposed additional tariffs, which are import duties, of 7.8% to 35.3% on Chinese-made electric vehicles entering the EU.

Britain has not followed Brussels with equivalent duties, leaving the UK particularly attractive to Chinese manufacturers competing on price. The result is a squeeze on established manufacturers: they must increase electric sales while cheaper Chinese brands rapidly increase their presence.

What remains unchanged if the target falls?

The government’s wider commitment would survive the likely change. New cars powered solely by petrol or diesel would still be phased out from 2030, and the government would not require every new car to be zero emission by 2035.

If ministers proceed, the measure would revise the annual quota rather than abandon the zero-emission transition. The likely package combines a lower endpoint—possibly 60% instead of 80% by 2030—with more freedom over how manufacturers comply.

For now, the evidence points to a slower mandated pace, not a changed destination. Battery-electric registrations grew faster than in 2025, yet the SMMT expects the market to miss the required share in both 2026 and 2027. The final decisions on the 2030 level and manufacturers’ flexibility remain unresolved.